COVID Statistics
Oct. 15th, 2023 03:32 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
lee_future Things are starting to ramp up again as the Fall season gets more firmly settled in. It's interesting to see how transparency has slowly became opaque in the last year or so, from official channels.
TLDR: There are clinics that you can get your COVID and FLU shots right now. Do it ASAP, before you get COVID this season and no longer qualify for a booster. Log on to the BC "Get Vaccinated" Page and book your appointment now.
Sources that I initially consulted to try and get a better handle on where things are in some cases have been entirely mothballed. The BC COVID ArcGIS monitoring site was retired as of April 2023; the public BCCDC situation reports have not been updated since April 2023 or earlier; the BCCDC does have weekly situation reports released if you hunt on the website, but does not appear to be making previous weeks reports available to the public for number comparisons.
We have been getting newspaper articles about it again, and on the hospital front, hospitals have theoretically been moved back to "masking required" inside. Unfortunately, the province gave the health authorities insufficient notice to staff this policy, so what that means is there are simply signs put at all the entrances to "If you don't have mask, please proceed to find MAIN ENTRANCE #12 to receive a mask; if you are sick please do not enter"....which as a hospital is laughable, since patients are there for a reason. Ie no enforcement. Maybe 50% of patients are masking, if that.
They also have been aggressively getting all health care workers vaccinated, before the COVID shot availability has even been announced as available to the general pop. No complaints there, though now it is optional again quite a few co-workers are declining.
What's actually happening, by the numbers though?
Here's a chart tracking this. I may or may not continue to post these and make a simplified graph for my own risk management purposes.
What does this actually boil down to though? Really, just the numbers are all up. We are moving into flu and COVID season - we knew that. On the chart, the day ZERO is the worst week comparison so far in the pandemic, when we stopped testing everyone About one in five people testing for COVID via PCR (so just long term care, hospitalized folks, the elderly with known conditions) are coming up positive. This is roughly the same as April 2023, when we stopped really tracking. More people are getting tested, almost double the numbers of testing from summer.
There is a slight spin attempt noting that only 45% of all deaths from April to now who tested positive for COVID within 30 days of their death had COVID listed as an underlying cause of death. That is supposed to be reassuring, but as we know that COVID lab testing is both hard to receive, and that COVID swabs are only done premptively on ADMITS to hospital. So... that means if you are treated within 24 hours in the emergency room and sent home, they probably don't know if you have COVID or not. Case positive numbers are really only comparable to previous same category, as the majority of people who have COVID that do not require intervention won't be counted there.
https://bccdc.shinyapps.io/respiratory_covid_sitrep/
http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/COVID_sitrep/Week_2_2022_BC_COVID-19_Situation_Report.pdf
Anecdotally, COVID seems to be going around. Family member has it now, my other brother has had it twice earlier in the year, and I know at least two friends who also are down with it, or have been. Average fever time and flat on back time (anecdotally) seems to be three to eight days.
What is my game plan for household management of a positive case?
1. Data Collection. Timed Fever and Oximeter measurements , symptom recording.
1b.Clear decision limits: If Fever > 103 F for more than a few hours; if Oximeter =<90; if confusion/disorientation or SOB --> UPCC or ER.
2. Containment: Specific house area for positive family member, summed with constant HEPA filter and sheets on all furniture to take off and wash regularly to reduce particulate. Fresh Air Flow system for increased oxygen into apartment; once coughing starts, air humidifier as well. Family member to not leave the house until fever broken > 24 hours, at least five days from first positive, and feeling better, as per BCCDC guidelines. Ideally RAT test out, but depending on stock and source.
3. Hydration and Medication: Constant supply of tea/soup/water/bland foods, and max dose of tylenol/preventatives
4.
TLDR: There are clinics that you can get your COVID and FLU shots right now. Do it ASAP, before you get COVID this season and no longer qualify for a booster. Log on to the BC "Get Vaccinated" Page and book your appointment now.
Sources that I initially consulted to try and get a better handle on where things are in some cases have been entirely mothballed. The BC COVID ArcGIS monitoring site was retired as of April 2023; the public BCCDC situation reports have not been updated since April 2023 or earlier; the BCCDC does have weekly situation reports released if you hunt on the website, but does not appear to be making previous weeks reports available to the public for number comparisons.
We have been getting newspaper articles about it again, and on the hospital front, hospitals have theoretically been moved back to "masking required" inside. Unfortunately, the province gave the health authorities insufficient notice to staff this policy, so what that means is there are simply signs put at all the entrances to "If you don't have mask, please proceed to find MAIN ENTRANCE #12 to receive a mask; if you are sick please do not enter"....which as a hospital is laughable, since patients are there for a reason. Ie no enforcement. Maybe 50% of patients are masking, if that.
They also have been aggressively getting all health care workers vaccinated, before the COVID shot availability has even been announced as available to the general pop. No complaints there, though now it is optional again quite a few co-workers are declining.
What's actually happening, by the numbers though?
Here's a chart tracking this. I may or may not continue to post these and make a simplified graph for my own risk management purposes.
| September 2023, newspaper info | October 2023, Epi Week 40 Oct 11, 2023 Data Pull. | Trend | |
| Cases(PCR+) | 639 | 807 | UP |
| Hospitalizations | 146 | 226 | UP |
| Hospitalizations % of cases | 22% | 28% | UP |
| Critical Care (#) | 36 | 41 | UP |
| Critical Care (%) | 5.6% | 5.08% | UP |
| Deaths (#) | 24 | 36 | UP |
| Deaths % of cases | 3.75% | 4.46% | UP |
What does this actually boil down to though? Really, just the numbers are all up. We are moving into flu and COVID season - we knew that. On the chart, the day ZERO is the worst week comparison so far in the pandemic, when we stopped testing everyone About one in five people testing for COVID via PCR (so just long term care, hospitalized folks, the elderly with known conditions) are coming up positive. This is roughly the same as April 2023, when we stopped really tracking. More people are getting tested, almost double the numbers of testing from summer.
There is a slight spin attempt noting that only 45% of all deaths from April to now who tested positive for COVID within 30 days of their death had COVID listed as an underlying cause of death. That is supposed to be reassuring, but as we know that COVID lab testing is both hard to receive, and that COVID swabs are only done premptively on ADMITS to hospital. So... that means if you are treated within 24 hours in the emergency room and sent home, they probably don't know if you have COVID or not. Case positive numbers are really only comparable to previous same category, as the majority of people who have COVID that do not require intervention won't be counted there.
https://bccdc.shinyapps.io/respiratory_covid_sitrep/
http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/COVID_sitrep/Week_2_2022_BC_COVID-19_Situation_Report.pdf
Anecdotally, COVID seems to be going around. Family member has it now, my other brother has had it twice earlier in the year, and I know at least two friends who also are down with it, or have been. Average fever time and flat on back time (anecdotally) seems to be three to eight days.
What is my game plan for household management of a positive case?
1. Data Collection. Timed Fever and Oximeter measurements , symptom recording.
1b.Clear decision limits: If Fever > 103 F for more than a few hours; if Oximeter =<90; if confusion/disorientation or SOB --> UPCC or ER.
2. Containment: Specific house area for positive family member, summed with constant HEPA filter and sheets on all furniture to take off and wash regularly to reduce particulate. Fresh Air Flow system for increased oxygen into apartment; once coughing starts, air humidifier as well. Family member to not leave the house until fever broken > 24 hours, at least five days from first positive, and feeling better, as per BCCDC guidelines. Ideally RAT test out, but depending on stock and source.
3. Hydration and Medication: Constant supply of tea/soup/water/bland foods, and max dose of tylenol/preventatives
4.
